UPDATED Oct. 15, 2024, at 4:51 PM
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Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
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95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE
Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.
On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024. See here for more details and an archived version of the previous average.
| Dates | Samplei SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Sponsor | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datesi SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Result |
Polls ending Oct. 13, 2024
President: general election, 2024AVG.
Oct. 12-14 | 1,198 | LV | Oct. 12-14 1,198LV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +3 |
President: general election, Wisconsin, 2024AVG.
Oct. 12-14 | 803 | RV | Oct. 12-14 803RV | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +1 |
President: general election, Maryland, 2024AVG.
Sept.8-Oct.14 | 400 | LV | Sept.8-Oct.14 400LV | Harris | 63% | Harris | 63% | Harris 63% Trump 37% | 37% | Trump | Harris | +26 |
Oct. 12, 2024
President: general election, Michigan, 2024AVG.
Oct. 11-13 | 692 | LV | Oct. 11-13 692LV | On Point Politics, Red Eagle Politics Red Eagle Politics is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +1 |
President: general election, 2024AVG.
Oct. 11-13 | 8,647 | LV | Oct. 11-13 8,647LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +4 | |||
Oct. 11-13 | 769 | LV | Oct. 11-13 769LV | Reuters | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 44% | 44% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
Oct. 11-13 | 807 | RV | Oct. 11-13 807RV | Reuters | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 42% | 42% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
Oct. 11-13 | 2,596 | LV | Oct. 11-13 2,596LV | Harvard University Center for American Political Studies | Harris | 51% | Harris | 51% | Harris 51% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
Oct. 11-13 | 2,596 | LV | Oct. 11-13 2,596LV | Harvard University Center for American Political Studies | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 48% West 1% Stein 1% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
49% Harris 48% Trump 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
President: general election, Nevada, 2024AVG.
Oct. 10-13 | 1,088 | LV | Oct. 10-13 1,088LV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 45% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +1 |
President: general election, North Carolina, 2024AVG.
Oct. 10-13 | 1,085 | LV | Oct. 10-13 1,085LV | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +2 |
President: general election, Arizona, 2024AVG.
Oct. 10-13 | 1,090 | LV | Oct. 10-13 1,090LV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +2 |
President: general election, Washington, 2024
Sept.7-Oct.13 | 400 | LV | Sept.7-Oct.13 400LV | Harris | 60% | Harris | 60% | Harris 60% Trump 40% | 40% | Trump | Harris | +20 |
Oct. 10, 2024
President: general election, 2024AVG.
Oct. 8-11 | 2,712 | LV | Oct. 8-11 2,712LV | CBS News | Harris | 51% | Harris | 51% | Harris 51% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Harris | +3 |
Oct. 9, 2024
President: general election, 2024AVG.
Oct. 8-10 | 9,556 | LV | Oct. 8-10 9,556LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +4 | |||
Oct. 7-10 | 2,945 | LV | Oct. 7-10 2,945LV | Napolitan Institute | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +3 |
President: general election, Arizona, 2024AVG.
Oct. 7-10 | 808 | RV | Oct. 7-10 808RV | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 49% Stein 2% Oliver 1% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +5 | |||
44% Harris 49% Trump 2% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 7-10 | 808 | RV | Oct. 7-10 808RV | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +6 | |||
Oct. 7-10 | 808 | LV | Oct. 7-10 808LV | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 50% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +5 | |||
45% Harris 50% Trump 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 7-10 | 808 | LV | Oct. 7-10 808LV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +5 | |||
President: general election, Pennsylvania, 2024AVG.
Oct. 7-10 | 857 | LV | Oct. 7-10 857LV | The Philadelphia Inquirer | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 45% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
49% Harris 45% Trump 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 7-10 | 857 | LV | Oct. 7-10 857LV | The Philadelphia Inquirer | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
Oct. 7-10 | 857 | RV | Oct. 7-10 857RV | The Philadelphia Inquirer | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 45% Stein 2% Oliver 1% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
49% Harris 45% Trump 2% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 7-10 | 857 | RV | Oct. 7-10 857RV | The Philadelphia Inquirer | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
Oct. 2-10 | 1,193 | LV | Oct. 2-10 1,193LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
Oct. 2-10 | 1,193 | LV | Oct. 2-10 1,193LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% Stein 2% Oliver 0% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
48% Harris 49% Trump 2% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
President: general election, Georgia, 2024AVG.
Oct. 7-10 | 731 | LV | Oct. 7-10 731LV | Napolitan Institute | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +3 |
President: general election, Massachusetts, 2024
Oct. 3-10 | 700 | A | Oct. 3-10 700A | WCVB-TV (Boston) | Harris | 56% | Harris | 56% | Harris 56% Trump 30% Stein 2% Oliver 1% De la Cruz 1% Ayyadurai 1% | 30% | Trump | Harris | +26 | ||
56% Harris 30% Trump 2% Stein 1% Oliver 1% De la Cruz 1% Ayyadurai | |||||||||||||||
President: general election, Texas, 2024AVG.
Sept.26-Oct.10 | 1,329 | LV | Sept.26-Oct.10 1,329LV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 51% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +5 | |||
46% Harris 51% Trump 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
President: general election, California, 2024AVG.
Sept.22-Oct.10 | 400 | LV | Sept.22-Oct.10 400LV | Harris | 64% | Harris | 64% | Harris 64% Trump 37% | 37% | Trump | Harris | +27 |
President: general election, Missouri, 2024AVG.
Sept.8-Oct.10 | 400 | LV | Sept.8-Oct.10 400LV | Harris | 43% | Harris | 43% | Harris 43% Trump 57% | 57% | Trump | Trump | +14 |
Oct. 8, 2024
President: general election, Pennsylvania, 2024AVG.
Oct. 8-9 | 707 | LV | Oct. 8-9 707LV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 48% Oliver 1% Stein 0% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
46% Harris 48% Trump 1% Oliver 0% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 7-9 | 803 | LV | Oct. 7-9 803LV | American Greatness | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% West 1% Stein 0% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
48% Harris 49% Trump 1% West 0% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 7-9 | 1,079 | RV | Oct. 7-9 1,079RV | American Greatness | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 45% West 1% Stein 1% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
49% Harris 45% Trump 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 7-9 | 803 | LV | Oct. 7-9 803LV | American Greatness | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
Oct. 7-9 | 1,079 | RV | Oct. 7-9 1,079RV | American Greatness | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 45% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
Oct. 6-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 6-9 800LV | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
President: general election, Georgia, 2024AVG.
Oct. 8-9 | 608 | LV | Oct. 8-9 608LV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 48% Oliver 1% Stein 1% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
47% Harris 48% Trump 1% Oliver 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
Oct. 6-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 6-9 800LV | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +5 | ||
President: general election, Wisconsin, 2024AVG.
Oct. 8-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 8-9 800LV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Even | ||||
Oct. 6-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 6-9 800LV | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 |
President: general election, Michigan, 2024AVG.
Oct. 8-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 8-9 800LV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
Oct. 6-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 6-9 800LV | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
Sept.15-Oct.9 | 400 | LV | Sept.15-Oct.9 400LV | Harris | 51% | Harris | 51% | Harris 51% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Harris | +2 |
President: general election, North Carolina, 2024AVG.
Oct. 6-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 6-9 800LV | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +1 |
President: general election, Nevada, 2024AVG.
Oct. 6-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 6-9 800LV | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +3 |
President: general election, Arizona, 2024AVG.
Oct. 6-9 | 800 | LV | Oct. 6-9 800LV | Donald Trump Donald Trump is a Republican Party candidate for office. | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +3 |
President: general election, Minnesota, 2024AVG.
Sept.10-Oct.9 | 400 | LV | Sept.10-Oct.9 400LV | Harris | 53% | Harris | 53% | Harris 53% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Harris | +6 |
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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.
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Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
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Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Polling averages by G. Elliott Morris. Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Irena Li, Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan, Geoffrey Skelley and Julia Wolfe contributed research. Editing by Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Copy editing by Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Alex Kimball, Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan, Maya Sweedler and Curtis Yee.
