College football Week 4 odds, picks against the spread: Oklahoma’s SEC debut vs. Tennessee, USC-Michigan and more (2024)

Four top-25 matchups dot the Week 4 schedule, beginning with a Friday night Big Ten showdown between two unlikely undefeateds and concluding with a primetime SEC debut.

No. 24 Illinois is 3-0 for the first time since 2012 and has a date with No. 22 Nebraska in Lincoln, where the Cornhuskers are enjoying their first 3-0 start since 2016. The Illini are road underdogs, largely because Nebraska won its first three games by a combined score of 102-20 and has allowed just 255 yards per game. But Illinois brings its own top-15 defense to town, so this fight could go the distance.

The Big 12 picture will get clearer with the mid-day matchup between No. 12 Utah and No. 14 Oklahoma State, and oddsmakers have the game as a coin flip. It should be an air show, as the Cowboys have a top-10 passing attack and the Utes are expected to get Cam Rising back under center for their trip to Stillwater.

USC should put on a competing aerial display in Ann Arbor, as the favored No. 12 Trojans don’t figure to have trouble passing the ball against their No. 17 hosts Michigan. The Wolverines’ passing defense is barely ranked in the top 100, and their offense is worse. The two storied programs are headed in opposite directions in the standings, and USC’s first Big 10 conference game could be the end of Michigan’s top-25 run.

But those matchups are an amuse-bouche for an all-SEC main course.

No. 6 Tennessee heads to the western edge of the conference to put its offense to the test against No. 15 Oklahoma, with the Sooners playing home underdogs in their first SEC game. The Volunteers have yet to score less than 51 points in a 2024 contest and are best in the nation with a 63.7 points-per-game average. Oklahoma represents the first high-level challenge for the Vols but is coming off two wins against lesser programs that weren’t convincing. The SEC holds half of the top 16 spots in the rankings, and the primetime Week 4 finale starts the sorting process for contenders and pretenders in the conference.

—J.J. Bailey

All games listed are on Saturday unless listed otherwise. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the AP poll. All odds are from BetMGM. For information on streaming,click here.

No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska — Friday 8 p.m. on FOX

Being in the top 25 is an accomplishment for both Illinois and Nebraska, given where the programs have been. Nebraska hasn’t made a bowl game since 2016 and hasn’t been in the season-ending AP Top 25 since 2012. Illinois had an eight-win season in 2022 but hasn’t finished a season ranked since 2007. It’s early, but both teams are already hinting at potential success at a level these programs haven’t seen in years.

Despite it being a close matchup in the rankings, Nebraska is favored by more than a touchdown ahead of this Friday night game.

Nebraska’s revival is built around Matt Rhule getting things going in Year 2 and having talented freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola hit the ground running. Raiola, a five-star recruit, has racked up 670 passing yards with a 73.8 completion percentage, five touchdowns and only one interception. Nebraska has had three mostly comfortable wins with the toughest test being a 28-10 win against Colorado that was essentially over by halftime. Who knows how good Colorado may end up being this year, but for as impressive as Raiola has been so far, the Husker defense has only allowed 20 points this season.

Illinois is also 3-0 and its best win is also against a Big 12 team of uncertain quality. The Illini beat Kansas in Week 2, knocking Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks from the top 25. For now, Illinois’ ranking appears to be a keep-what-you-kill situation. Kansas was ranked and Illinois beat Kansas, therefore Illinois is now a top 25 team. Well, Kansas has since lost to UNLV and is 1-2.

The betting odds seem to reflect more belief in Nebraska as a solid team, but there are a lot of unknowns here and both fan bases will be excited to have a meaningful game after a lot of lean years.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

NC State at No. 21 Clemson — Noon on ABC

Before the season, this game looked like a big one early in the ACC race. NC State and Clemson both had preseason aspirations of contending for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Now? Well, the perception on both teams is not trending up, although Clemson is a three-score favorite in this one.

Clemson’s season-opening thrashing at the hands of Georgia reaffirmed Clemson’s fall from the elite in the sport to a rung or two below. Georgia beating up on teams is nothing new, although last week’s nail-biter in Kentucky could be a bit more of a warning sign for Clemson. The Tigers beat on Appalachian State 66-20 in Week 2 and enter this game coming off a bye.

Cade Klubnik went for 378 yards, five touchdowns and threw just two incompletions in 26 attempts against the Mountaineers. That was probably cathartic for Clemson and its fans after a lifeless offensive showing against Georgia that netted three points.

NC State had a preseason top-25 ranking but has disappointed each week so far. The Wolfpack got crushed by Tennessee but also entered the fourth quarter without a lead against both Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech. Quarterback Grayson McCall wasn’t lighting up the scoreboard but did get hurt last week, and freshman CJ Bailey is expected to start this one. Bailey was 13-for-20 for 156 yards with an interception against Louisiana Tech.

The question for this game is, from the betting perspective at least, do you trust Clemson’s offense enough to cover a three-touchdown spread against an ACC opponent?

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 11 USC at No. 18 Michigan — 3:30 p.m. on CBS

The two blue-blood programs have switched places since the start of the season, with Michigan tumbling out of the top 10 down to 17, and USC steadily rising from No. 23 to No. 12 ahead of its first Big 10 game. The Wolverines look shaky through three weeks — to the point they’re shifting to a new starting quarterback — and are near-touchdown underdogs on their own field after a lackluster showing against Arkansas State a week ago.

Despite racing out to a 28-3 lead, Michigan looked uncomfortable much of the game against what was supposed to be a vastly inferior opponent. Arkansas State picked off quarterback Davis Warren three times and allowed just 134 passing yards and 13 completions. The Wolverines did manage more than 300 yards on the ground, but their scoring stalled and the game finished 28-18 with Arkansas State getting a pair of garbage-time touchdowns, including one in the last 10 seconds.

It was not the get-right game the defending champs were looking for and exposed an even bigger problem ahead of USC’s visit. Arkansas State threw for 222 yards, and Michigan now has the country’s 90th-ranked passing defense. The Trojans are averaging 336.5 passing yards per game (seventh) and quarterback Miller Moss has completed 72.7 percent of his passes on the year. That’s a recipe for all kinds of trouble, and Michigan has demonstrated it doesn’t have the horses for a comeback through the air.

In addition to his struggles against Arkansas State, Warren has just 444 passing yards through three games this season, the main cause of the Wolverines being ranked 99th in total offense. Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore has said he’ll instead start Alex Orji against USC. Orji has been more of a running threat in his career, but will have an opportunity to show he can a threat with his arm as well.

By contrast, Moss had 378 yards in his opening game against LSU and gets the benefit of fresh-legged weapons thanks to a Week 3 bye.

After being dismantled by Texas and scuffling against a Group of 5 opponent, facing a surging USC likely means an unceremonious end to Michigan’s stay among the top 25.

—J.J. Bailey

Picks against the spread

Georgia Tech at No. 19 Louisville — 3:30 p.m. on ESPN2

Louisville is expected to be a contender in the ACC this year, but is Georgia Tech also? The Yellow Jackets got some early season hype after knocking off Florida State, an accomplishment that has since lost its luster, but are double-digit underdogs for this game in Kentucky.

Georgia Tech is one of two teams in the country to have played four games so far. The Yellow Jackets got that marquee, at the time, win against FSU in Week 0 and haven’t had a bye yet. They do have a loss, though, 31-28 at Syracuse in Week 2. Quarterback Haynes King has been solid (76.4 completion percentage, 962 passing yards, 158 rushing yards, eight total TDs) and will test Louisville both with his arm and legs.

Louisville has played half as many games as Georgia Tech, entering this game 2-0 and off a bye week. The Cardinals blew away Austin Peay (62-0) and Jacksonville State (49-14), which doesn’t say much about Louisville other than the Cardinals did what they were supposed to. Quarterback Tyler Shough is in his sixth year of college football and with his third program. He joined the Cardinals from Texas Tech this offseason and already has six passing touchdowns, which is nearly halfway to his career-high mark, set back in 2020 when he was with Oregon.

Some of the shine has come off Georgia Tech since that opening win in Dublin, but this game will tell us a lot more about the ACC race.

—Dan Santaromita

Picks against the spread

No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State — 4 p.m. on FOX

The big X-factor in Saturday’s No. 12 Utah vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State game will be the availability — and effectiveness — of Utah quarterback Cameron Rising. This line has had a lot of movement with Utah being favored earlier in the week, but that flipping to Oklahoma State on Wednesday, bringing into question if Rising will actually play.

Rising left Utah’s Week 2 win against Baylor with a hand laceration and sat out its 38-21 win over Utah State on Saturday in favor of backup Isaac Wilson. When he has played, he has been a difference-maker, already throwing seven touchdowns on his first 29 pass attempts. Granted, those games came against FCS Southern Utah and a Baylor team that won three games a year ago, but he has still looked outstanding and is showing no signs of having missed the entire 2023 season.

Going on the road against a top-15 team will be the first big test of the season for him and the Utes offense.

They will also need to be on their game to keep up with an Oklahoma State offense that has scored at least 35 points in every game this season behind a strong offensive line and passing game.

While running back Ollie Gordon (the 2023 Doak Walker Award winner) has yet to make a huge impact on the ground, the passing game led by quarterback Alan Bowman has been outstanding. That could be a big opening for the Cowboys against a Utah secondary that has struggled at times this season despite not yet playing a top-tier passing offense.

—Adam Gretz

Picks against the spread

No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma — 7:30 p.m. on ABC

College GameDay will be in Norman this weekend for a historic meeting between No. 6 Tennessee and No. 15 Oklahoma. The visiting Volunteers are favored in the Sooners’ first-ever SEC contest.

This game also serves as a homecoming for Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel. The former Oklahoma All-American quarterback and longtime assistant under Bob Stoops is the mastermind behind an offense that leads the nation in scoring (63.7 points per game) and is second in yards per game (639.3). Not to be outdone, the Vols’ defense has yet to surrender a touchdown and is giving up a little more than three yards per play.

Oklahoma has had to work a little harder for its first three wins. Quarterback Jackson Arnold has been effective (seven touchdowns, two interceptions) as a passer, but he’s also the team’s leading rusher with just 159 yards. Tennessee’s stout defensive line is not a good matchup for an Oklahoma front that has had issues opening up running lanes (4.3 yards per carry as a team) and with pass protection (nine sacks allowed).

Tennessee’s offense has been moving under redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Quarterbacks get the attention, but running back Dylan Sampson (7.9 yards per carry, nine touchdowns) is another player to watch.

The Sooners are tough to beat at home but they usually boast the more potent offense. That’s not the case here, and even though Brent Venables’ defense has been aggressive (11 sacks) and opportunistic (plus-8 turnover margin), it’s going to take a truly special performance on both sides of the ball for OU to hang with Tennessee. Welcome to life in the SEC, Sooners fans.

—Mark Ross

Picks against the spread

Wild card picks

Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.

Austin Mock:Southern Miss/Jacksonville State under 60.5

Chris Vannini:East Carolina–Liberty under 52.5

Dan Santaromita: Boston College -6.5 vs. Michigan State

David Ubben: Indiana -28 vs. Charlotte

Picks records

(Photo of Jackson Arnold: Brian Bahr / Getty Images)